“I always thought that Dr John Briffa was like a more grown-up version of Patrick Holford… now he’s blown it.” If these words seem familiar, perhaps it’s because you’ve read them before.
The last time I wrote those words, I was looking at a blog post of Briffa’s where he was scaremongering about the MMR vaccine causing autism. This time it’s rainfall (no, seriously). What does Briffa think? Here’s an abridged version of some of his views:
Of course one other possibility is that rain is actually causing autism. Not the water part of rain, of course, but something that may come with it. The stand-out suspect here is the heavy metal mercury. While the authors of the study do not mention mercury specifically, they cite a study in support of their theory that environmental toxins may cause autism which focused on the potential role mercury plays in autism. [...] The authors of the rainfall study admit their study does not prove that the existence of an environmental trigger for autism, but say that their results are consistent with this idea. They add that further research into whether such a trigger exists is warranted. At the current time, we don’t know whether rain can cause autism or not. But the fact of the matter remains that through the delivery of mercury or some other toxin(s), it might.
Way to go Dr John – that is some mighty impressive scaremongering. I’m not sure how mercury causing autism fits in with his previous post on MMR (a vaccine that never contained mercury) causing autism. Does he still believe that MMR is a likely cause of autism and, if not, will he be retracting his previous blog post? If he does still think MMR a likely cause of autism, then where does mercury from rain fit in to his theory? Or is he simply going to list everything that correlates with autism rates and claim that every single one might cause autism?
I ought to acknowledge the figure came from an article in Prescriber by Paula McDonald (Former Consultant in Communicable Disease Control in Cheshire & Wirral). Thanks to Anthony of http://www.blacktriangle.org/blog/?p=425 for attribution details.
November 6, 2008 at 3:21 pm
“At the current time, we don’t know whether rain can cause autism or not. But the fact of the matter remains that through the delivery of mercury or some other toxin(s), it might.”
Before the election I was persistently worried that Obama would lose. I knew that all the polls said that this was almost impossible, and all the experts were sure he’d win. But I still worried.
This is the kind of psychology that Briffa is feeding into. There’s no good evidence at all that mercury causes autism and all experts reject it… but still, it MIGHT! And that’s genuinely scary. Now if there was a theory that mercury in rain caused acne, no-one would care. It’s just that autism scares people so much.
November 6, 2008 at 4:37 pm
“This is the kind of psychology that Briffa is feeding into.”
Exactly – and I like your Obama analogy.
November 6, 2008 at 6:46 pm
Here is another blog that’s looked at Precipitation and Autism. (Spotted via Gonzo girl’s miniblog).
Post 1
Post 2
November 7, 2008 at 12:51 am
I think Briffa now falls under the remit of Dr*T’s First Theorem.
November 7, 2008 at 12:33 pm
I love that cartoon chart – I think that would look good on a T-shirt!
November 7, 2008 at 8:45 pm
Joy. Another instalment in the Briff-ster’s campaign to persuade you that water is bad for you. Tap water gives you cancer, rain water poisons you with mercury… it’s a wonder any of us are still here.
Tap water, as you may recall, gives you cancer (well, it doesn’t, of course, but don’t let that put you off a good scare-story) whether you drink it or wash in it.
I wonder what the Briff-ster is washing in these days? Asses’ milk?
Or no doubt some “natural water products” company will sell you some incredibly expensive “ion exchange purification” system to remove mercury from your bath and shower water. Kerr-chinnng!
November 7, 2008 at 9:56 pm
Cheers Andrew – Dr* T’s First Theorem is a good one.
Smart Bombs – yeah, it’s not bad. Another one I remember is the Bad Science “tell your friends…” bib.
DrAust – yes, I remember that drinking water (or bathing in it) can be deadly. I think one interesting thing about the Briffa post you dissected is that the information the Briffster missed out seemed to be as important as the information he included.
November 7, 2008 at 10:05 pm
Another bunch of links on the paper:
Orac; SBM; I have a link to David Kirby discussing this on the Huffington Post site; also an editorial on the paper.
November 8, 2008 at 2:09 am
I just noticed that Briffa footnotes a BMJ rapid response – which he wrote himself – in the same comments thread where the first response was made http://www.bmj.com/cgi/eletters/329/7469/755 I’m not sure what that tells us, but I thought it was noteworthy for some reason…
November 8, 2008 at 10:43 am
The Briff-ster is so proud of the two e-letters of his that the BMJ have actually run in the print edition that he actually lists them in his online CV as “Medical Journal Publications”.
November 8, 2008 at 1:31 pm
I wonder if Briffa uses a Brita water filter?
*cheers and applause*
Thankyou!! You’ve been a great audience!
November 9, 2008 at 12:11 am
Good grief. Tap water causes cancer and now rain causes autism. What next – swimming causes skin cancer or possibly snow causes [blank]?
Why are nutrition therapists that we get our fluid from water? If I were them I would be avoiding it like the plague. “Say no to water”. Is there a title
November 9, 2008 at 8:24 pm
*walks over and clips ColMcq’s ear*
November 10, 2008 at 4:21 pm
jonhw, draust – yeah, the sef-referencing comments in the Rabid Responses and the online cv are interesting. To be fair, he did write for the People’s Medical Journal* for some time and that’s only listed as “Print Journalism”. I guess he felt that “The T-Cell response to Haptenated Insulins. 1: The Proliferative Response” on its own looked a bit bare. Shame really – it’s possibly the single most interesting thing he has ever been involved in writing.
*Daily Mail for the uninitiated.
colmcq – that is so bad that people who know me are going to assume I’ve written it. He could also use a Biffa Water Filter, but I’ve heard they’re a load of rubbish.
LeeT – gah, you’re right. The hydrationistas (TM Dr Aust) would have you believe that you must obtain your daily fluid intake from drinking water. This isn’t true, but what happens if you attempt to get a portion of your fluid intake from tomato or apple juice? Everyone knows that they contain deadly methanol. Heh. So now we can’t drink cancerous water, or those frightfully dangerous alternatives such as fruit juice or artificially sweetened soft drinks. Obviously the only thing left for me now is booze. Thankfully, the media are constantly telling me that red wine is good for me and that teetotallers are less healthy than moderate drinkers so it must be OK. Erm. Unless they have failed to account for the fact that teetotallers are likely to be different from drinkers in other ways (and that the term ‘teetotaller’ may apply to a recovering alcoholic with liver damage as well as a virtuously healthy never-drinker). Not that we should let caveats such as those to get in the way of our heartfelt wish that booze be good for us.